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  4. Future of Jobs in Australia: Where Will They Be? [Updated]
Published 7 Jul 2020

Future of Jobs in Australia: Where Will They Be? [Updated]

Claudia Reiners

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As you’re interpreting the projections and statistics in this article, it is important to remember that COVID-19  has had, and will continue to have, a substantial impact on Australia’s labour market. While predictions around the economic implications of the virus aren’t yet certain, it is clear there will be some negative employment changes.

Here at TafeCourses.com.au, we’ve compiled the most up to date statistics according to labour projections by the year 2024, however these do not take into account the impact of COVID-19.


What Jobs Will be in Demand in 2024?

According to the Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business, and the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), the three predicted industry areas that are expected to have a massive spike in employment are:



Nursing


Software & Applications Programming


Teaching



These rapidly expanding industries make up a high proportion of expected job openings between 2017 and 2024, but a report by NCVER details that this is mostly as a result of replacement demand rather than employment growth. This means that these employment opportunities are arising due to a substantial amount of workers leaving their fields for reasons such as retirement.

In 2024, 35% of the working-age population are estimated to be 55 years or older, which is an increase compared to today’s 32%. This suggests that many industry areas that are dominated by relatively older workforces will be susceptible to replacement demand in the upcoming decade; something to keep a close eye on as baby-boomers begin to retire.

by the year
0

  • An extra 1,075,000 people will be employed by 2024 at a predicted average of 1.6% each year, compared to 2.3% over five years to November 2019. This accounts for net employment growth projections, with more openings created by replacement demand.
  • The total number of job openings over the forecast period of 2017 to 2024 will be about 4.1 million (or 8.3%), with more than half of these resulting from replacement demand.
  • On average, there will be 516,600 job openings per year created by turnover.

Sources: NCVER and Australian Government


Skill Levels in Demand

  • The highest projected employment growth will be in occupations requiring Skill Levels 1, 2 and 4, by: 11.8%, 8.1% and 8.1% respectively.
  • Skill Level 2 occupations account for more than half of the projected employment growth over the next five years, highlighting the necessity of tertiary education in Australia.
  • Skill Levels 5 and 3 are projected to have the weakest growth, of 5.3% and 4.7% respectively.

  • Skill Level 1: Bachelor degree or higher qualification 
  • Skill Level 2: Advanced Diploma or Diploma
  • Skill Level 3: Certificate IV or Certificate III with at least two years on-the-job training
  • Skill Level 4: Certificate II or III
  • Skill Level 5: Certificate I or secondary education

Skill level growth projections only account for net growth projections. Due to turnover, workers of all skill levels will have a variety of employment opportunities.

Source: Australian Government

Nursing & Healthcare Workers Job Outlook

As nursing professionals fall into the health care and social assistance sector, this means that the National Disability and Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will continue to supplement employment growth. This NDIS boost with the support of government expenditure suggests that there will be an increase of 119,000 of healthcare workers in 2024, making this the economy’s largest sector with 1.8 million people.

Other sectors that will benefit from this scheme, as well as replacement demand are health and welfare support workers, child carers and personal carers and assistants.

If you are interested in pursuing nursing or healthcare as a career, here are the courses to get you started:


  • Diploma of Nursing (SA and WA ONLY)
  • Certificate III in Health Service Assistance
  • Course in Bridging into Nursing “BINS” (VIC ONLY)
  • Certificate III in Early Childhood Education and Care
  • Diploma of Early Childhood Education and Care
  • Certificate III in Individual Support (Aged Care)


Employment by Occupation 2016-2024


Employment in 2016
245,900
Employment in 2024
365,800

2.5% average year-on-year change

Predicted Job Openings
2017-2024

0,600

Weekly Pay for a Registered Nurse vs. National Average

Browse Nursing Courses

Software and Applications Programming Job Oulook

The majority of these jobs fall within the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Industry. It’s an industry with the strongest growth projection — 2.8% by 2024 — which highlights the ongoing demand for qualified and highly educated workers in Australia.

Software and Applications Programming jobs are predicted to increase by 23.4% by 2024. However, the industry as a whole has the lowest replacement demand since the majority of its workers are relatively young. So, most of the jobs in this field will be newly created to fill growing demand. This would bring the industry total to 166,600, making it a very large field. It’s a true reflection of the digital shift Australia and the world has been experiencing, cementing the need for workers skilled in programming, analysis and evaluation, complex problem solving and critical thinking. 

If you’re keen on pursuing a career in this exciting and challenging field, there’s a wide variety of courses that will teach you the necessary skills:


  • Certificate III in Programming
  • Certificate IV in Programming
  • Diploma of Software Development


Employment by Occupation
2016-2024


employment in 2016
99,600
employment in 2024
166,600*

*Only accounting for net employment growth

Predicted Job Openings
2017-2024

0,000

Weekly Pay for a Software & Applications Programmer vs. National Average


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Teaching Job Outlook

It was found that by 2024, 400,000 of teachers will make up the largest professional occupation, with professional occupation found to maintain the highest number of job openings (121,700 per year). When you decide to study teaching, you are definitely not limited; the education sector is made up of a variety of roles, for example teaching children with special needs, and an equal amount of courses.

Some of these are:


  • Certificate III in Early Childhood Education & Care
  • Certificate III in Education Support
  • Certificate IV in Education Support
  • Diploma of Early Childhood Education & Care
  • Diploma of School Age Education & Care


Employment by Occupation 2016-2024


Employment in 2016
345,200
Employment in 2024
438,700

1.3% average year-on-year change

Predicted Job Openings
2017-2024

0,300

Weekly Pay for a Secondary School Teacher vs. National Average

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Other Rising Employment Areas

Other major employment areas that are foreseen to have a reasonably high proportion of job openings are trades areas. This is also due to replacement demand, which is predicted to have training implications on these specific areas. As older, more experienced workers in these trades sectors begin to retire, it leaves only a few to train and supervise apprentices. Also, as the process of apprenticeship training can take years and the completion rates can be low, it is imperative that these areas are well-recruited for. This needs to be done in order to avoid any worker shortages in upcoming years.


Predicted Increase in Job Openings for Trades Industries (%)


Bricklayers, Carpenters
& Joiners


0.4%

Automotive Electricians
& Mechanics


0.1%

Job Openings by Trades Occupation 2017-24: most likely scenario


Building & Engineering Technicians
40,800
Bricklayers, Carpenters & Joiners
39,800
Auto. Electricians & Mechanics
32,400
Electricians
31,000
Plumbers
20,000
Floor Finishers & Painting Trades
15,300


Browse Building CoursesBrowse Electrical Courses
Browse Plumbing CoursesBrowse Automotive Courses

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